Estimating waiting times, patient flow, and waiting room occupancy density as part of tuberculosis infection prevention and control research in South African primary health care clinics

Transmission of respiratory pathogens, such as Mycobacterium tuberculosis and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, is more likely during close, prolonged contact and when sharing a poorly ventilated space. Reducing overcrowding of health facilities is a recognised infection prevention and control (IPC) strategy;reliable estimates of waiting times and ‘patient flow' would help guide implementation. As part of the Umoya omuhle study, we aimed to estimate clinic visit duration, time spent indoors versus outdoors, and occupancy density of waiting rooms in clinics in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and Western Cape (WC), South Africa. We used unique barcodes to track attendees' movements in 11 clinics, multiple imputation to estimate missing arrival and departure times, and mixed-effects linear regression to examine associations with visit duration. 2,903 attendees were included. Median visit duration was 2 hours 36 minutes (interquartile range [IQR] 01:36–3:43). Longer mean visit times were associated with being female (13.5 minutes longer than males;p<0.001) and attending with a baby (18.8 minutes longer than those without;p<0.01), and shorter mean times with later arrival (14.9 minutes shorter per hour after 0700;p<0.001). Overall, attendees spent more of their time indoors (median 95.6% [IQR 46–100]) than outdoors (2.5% [IQR 0–35]). Attendees at clinics with outdoor waiting areas spent a greater proportion (median 13.7% [IQR 1–75]) of their time outdoors. In two clinics in KZN (no appointment system), occupancy densities of ~2.0 persons/m2 were observed in smaller waiting rooms during busy periods. In one clinic in WC (appointment system, larger waiting areas), occupancy density did not exceed 1.0 persons/m2 despite higher overall attendance. In this study, longer waiting times were associated with early arrival, being female, and attending with a young child. Occupancy of waiting rooms varied substantially between rooms and over the clinic day. Light-touch estimation of occupancy density may help guide interventions to improve patient flow.

Rethinking Disease Preparedness: Incertitude and the Politics of Knowledge.

This paper argues for a rethinking of disease preparedness that puts incertitude and the politics of knowledge at the centre. Through examining the experiences of Ebola, Nipah, cholera and COVID-19 across multiple settings, the limitations of current approaches are highlighted. Conventional approaches assume a controllable, predictable future, which is responded to by a range of standard interventions. Such emergency preparedness planning approaches assume risk - where future outcomes can be predicted - and fail to address uncertainty, ambiguity and ignorance - where outcomes or their probabilities are unknown. Through examining the experiences of outbreak planning and response across the four cases, the paper argues for an approach that highlights the politics of knowledge, the constructions of time and space, the requirements for institutions and administrations and the challenges of ethics and justice. Embracing incertitude in disease preparedness responses therefore means making contextual social, political and cultural dimensions central.

Epidemics and the Military: Responding to COVID-19 in Uganda.

The UN Security Council's response to Ebola in 2014 legitimised militarised responses. It also influenced responses to COVID-19 in some African countries. Yet, little is known about the day-to-day impacts for ordinary citizens of mobilising armies for epidemic control. Drawing on 18 months ethnographic research, this article analyses militarised responses to COVID-19 during, and following, two lockdowns at contrasting sites in Uganda: a small town in Pakwach district and a village in Kasese district. Both field sites lie close to the border of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Although the practice of health security varied between sites, the militarised response had more impact than the disease in these two places. The armed forces scaled back movement from urban conurbations to rural and peri-urban areas; while simultaneously enabling locally based official public authorities to use the proclaimed priorities of President Museveni's government to enhance their position and power. This led to a situation whereby inhabitants created new modes of mutuality to resist or subvert the regulations being enforced, including the establishment of new forms of cross-border movement. These findings problematise the widely held view that Uganda's response to COVID-19 was successful. Overall, it is argued that the on-going securitisation of global health has helped to create the political space to militarise the response. While this has had unknown effects on the prevalence of COVID-19, it has entrenched unaccountable modes of public authority and created a heightened sense of insecurity on the ground. The tendency to condone the violent practice of militarised public health programmes by international and national actors reflects a broader shift in the acceptance of more authoritarian forms of governance.

Estimating waiting times, patient flow, and waiting room occupancy density as part of tuberculosis infection prevention and control research in South African primary health care clinics.

Transmission of respiratory pathogens, such as Mycobacterium tuberculosis and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, is more likely during close, prolonged contact and when sharing a poorly ventilated space. Reducing overcrowding of health facilities is a recognised infection prevention and control (IPC) strategy; reliable estimates of waiting times and 'patient flow' would help guide implementation. As part of the Umoya omuhle study, we aimed to estimate clinic visit duration, time spent indoors versus outdoors, and occupancy density of waiting rooms in clinics in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and Western Cape (WC), South Africa. We used unique barcodes to track attendees' movements in 11 clinics, multiple imputation to estimate missing arrival and departure times, and mixed-effects linear regression to examine associations with visit duration. 2,903 attendees were included. Median visit duration was 2 hours 36 minutes (interquartile range [IQR] 01:36-3:43). Longer mean visit times were associated with being female (13.5 minutes longer than males; p<0.001) and attending with a baby (18.8 minutes longer than those without; p<0.01), and shorter mean times with later arrival (14.9 minutes shorter per hour after 0700; p<0.001). Overall, attendees spent more of their time indoors (median 95.6% [IQR 46-100]) than outdoors (2.5% [IQR 0-35]). Attendees at clinics with outdoor waiting areas spent a greater proportion (median 13.7% [IQR 1-75]) of their time outdoors. In two clinics in KZN (no appointment system), occupancy densities of ~2.0 persons/m2 were observed in smaller waiting rooms during busy periods. In one clinic in WC (appointment system, larger waiting areas), occupancy density did not exceed 1.0 persons/m2 despite higher overall attendance. In this study, longer waiting times were associated with early arrival, being female, and attending with a young child. Occupancy of waiting rooms varied substantially between rooms and over the clinic day. Light-touch estimation of occupancy density may help guide interventions to improve patient flow.

Vaccine anxieties, vaccine preparedness: Perspectives from Africa in a Covid-19 era.

Global debates about vaccines as a key element of pandemic response and future preparedness in the era of Covid-19 currently focus on questions of supply, with attention to global injustice in vaccine distribution and African countries as rightful beneficiaries of international de-regulation and financing initiatives such as COVAX. At the same time, vaccine demand and uptake are seen to be threatened by hesitancy, often attributed to an increasingly globalised anti-vaxx movement and its propagation of misinformation and conspiracy, now reaching African populations through a social media 'infodemic'. Underplayed in these debates are the socio-political contexts through which vaccine technologies enter and are interpreted within African settings, and the crucial intersections between supply and demand. We explore these through a 'vaccine anxieties' framework attending to both desires for and worries about vaccines, as shaped by bodily, societal and wider political understandings and experiences. This provides an analytical lens to organise and interpret ethnographic and narrative accounts in local and national settings in Uganda and Sierra Leone, and their (dis)connections with global debates and geopolitics. In considering the socially-embedded reasons why people want or do not want Covid-19 vaccines, and how this intersects with the dynamics of vaccine supply, access and distribution in rapidly-unfolding epidemic situations, we bring new, expanded insights into debates about vaccine confidence and vaccine preparedness.

Negotiating Intersecting Precarities: COVID-19, Pandemic Preparedness and Response in Africa.

This article shares findings on COVID-19 in Africa across 2020 to examine concepts and practices of epidemic preparedness and response. Amidst uncertainties about the trajectory of COVID-19, the stages of emergency response emerge in practice as interconnected. We illustrate how complex dynamics manifest as diverse actors interpret and modify approaches according to contexts and experiences. We suggest that the concept of "intersecting precarities" best captures the temporalities at stake; that these precarities include the effects of epidemic control measures; and that people do not just accept but actively negotiate these intersections as they seek to sustain their lives and livelihoods.

Organisational Culture and Mask-Wearing Practices for Tuberculosis Infection Prevention and Control among Health Care Workers in Primary Care Facilities in the Western Cape, South Africa: A Qualitative Study.

Background: Although many healthcare workers (HCWs) are aware of the protective role that mask-wearing has in reducing transmission of tuberculosis (TB) and other airborne diseases, studies on infection prevention and control (IPC) for TB in South Africa indicate that mask-wearing is often poorly implemented. Mask-wearing practices are influenced by aspects of the environment and organisational culture within which HCWs work. Methods: We draw on 23 interviews and four focus group discussions conducted with 44 HCWs in six primary care facilities in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. Three key dimensions of organisational culture were used to guide a thematic analysis of HCWs' perceptions of masks and mask-wearing practices in the context of TB infection prevention and control. Results: First, HCW accounts address both the physical experience of wearing masks, as well as how mask-wearing is perceived in social interactions, reflecting visual manifestations of organisational culture in clinics. Second, HCWs expressed shared ways of thinking in their normalisation of TB as an inevitable risk that is inherent to their work and their localization of TB risk in specific areas of the clinic. Third, deeper assumptions about mask-wearing as an individual choice rather than a collective responsibility were embedded in power and accountability relationships among HCWs and clinic managers. These features of organisational culture are underpinned by broader systemic shortcomings, including limited availability of masks, poorly enforced protocols, and a general lack of role modelling around mask-wearing. HCW mask-wearing was thus shaped not only by individual knowledge and motivation but also by the embodied social dimensions of mask-wearing, the perceptions that TB risk was normal and localizable, and a shared underlying tendency to assume that mask-wearing, ultimately, was a matter of individual choice and responsibility. Conclusions: Organisational culture has an important, and under-researched, impact on HCW mask-wearing and other PPE and IPC practices. Consistent mask-wearing might become a more routine feature of IPC in health facilities if facility managers more actively promote engagement with TB-IPC guidelines and develop a sense of collective involvement and ownership of TB-IPC in facilities.

Post-pandemic transformations: How and why COVID-19 requires us to rethink development.

COVID-19 is proving to be the long awaited 'big one': a pandemic capable of bringing societies and economies to their knees. There is an urgent need to examine how COVID-19 - as a health and development crisis - unfolded the way it did it and to consider possibilities for post-pandemic transformations and for rethinking development more broadly. Drawing on over a decade of research on epidemics, we argue that the origins, unfolding and effects of the COVID-19 pandemic require analysis that addresses both structural political-economic conditions alongside far less ordered, 'unruly' processes reflecting complexity, uncertainty, contingency and context-specificity. This structural-unruly duality in the conditions and processes of pandemic emergence, progression and impact provides a lens to view three key challenge areas. The first is how scientific advice and evidence are used in policy, when conditions are rigidly 'locked in' to established power relations and yet so uncertain. Second is how economies function, with the COVID-19 crisis having revealed the limits of a conventional model of economic growth. The third concerns how new forms of politics can become the basis of reshaped citizen-state relations in confronting a pandemic, such as those around mutual solidarity and care. COVID-19 demonstrates that we face an uncertain future, where anticipation of and resilience to major shocks must become the core problematic of development studies and practice. Where mainstream approaches to development have been top down, rigid and orientated towards narrowly-defined economic goals, post-COVID-19 development must have a radically transformative, egalitarian and inclusive knowledge and politics at its core.